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Steve Kelsey: When the storm clouds of depression loom, time to take action

October 1, 2011 Comments Off

I speak to you tonight from a manoir deep in France on the eve of great events. Beyond the stone walls of fortress Europe, the dark clouds of economic depression are gathering; and we are called upon once more to face an old enemy

Sorry! Got a bit carried away there for a moment – just bear with me while I turn the Churchill filter down a little bit.

However, much of what I said is true. It is true that I am writing in a manoir in France. It is true that I would rather be going to bed. But deadlines are deadlines and if one cannot indulge in a little nostalgic grandiosity after a fine bottle of the local plonk, when can one? However, the facts of the matter remain and there really is trouble ahead.

Fortunately for the local inhabitants of this part of France never left the 1970s and will be more or less unscathed. Where I am staying, the effect of the impending collapse of old Europe will be limited.

The local cars will get a little bit older, the local market a little less colourful and there will be some small but noticeable increase in the sale of lead shot. But life will go on much the same.

The rest of us will not fare so well.

Because of the measures put in place by the government, Britain is currently considered to be on the right heading. I, for one, applaud the decision this month to act on managing the actions of the banks.

When both the Financial Times and the head of Barclays both admit it is necessary and achievable, you get some sense of just how fantastically cavalier the whiners in the banking profession are still being with our future. One in particular wittered on about banking being cast back to 2007. He seems sanguine about you and I being cast back to the 1970s. (I would check his name but it is a little difficult here back in the 1970s – I have to drive to nearest large town tomorrow to get internet access just to file my column.) But the real benefit of being British at I speak to you tonight from a manoir deep in France on the eve of great events. Beyond the stone walls of fortress Europe, the dark clouds of economic depression are gathering; and we are called upon once more to face an old enemy.

Sorry! Got a bit carried away there for a moment – just bear with me while I turn the Churchill filter down a little bit.

However, much of what I said is true. It is true that I am writing in a manoir in France. It is true that I would rather be going to bed. But deadlines are deadlines and if one cannot indulge in a little nostalgic grandiosity after a fine bottle of the local plonk, when can one? However, the facts of the matter remain and there really is trouble ahead.

Fortunately for the local inhabitants of this part of France never left the 1970s and will be more or less unscathed. Where I am staying, the effect of the impending the moment is that our government has made a decision. Anyone who has thought about the future, and that is what designers are supposed to do, recognises pretty quickly that action determines its path.

This is not some pompous proclamation but literally true. In probability theory, any outcome is possible if all outcomes are equally weighted. History is no help here. The history of the coin being tossed has no connection to the probability of it being heads or tails. It might have come up heads 20 times in a row but the probability on the next toss is still 50/50.

Until someone acts, all futures are possible.

Once someone acts, for a short period of time, the future is set. Anyone involved in design in any meaningful way knows that the future is created by actions taken, which is why a lack of action is dangerous in the extreme. If our elected representatives fail to act, someone else will define our future for us.

Steve Kelsey is strategic innovations director at design agency PI Global

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