Robert Stevens: The truth about Tropicana, or how to save $100m with market research

Dear Mr. Campbell,

We all make mistakes, so no one can blame you for saying that the Tropicana repackaging re-call was a concession to noisy bloggers and social media outcry amongst passionate Tropicana fans. It’s a credible story and one where you appear to have bowed to consumer pressure – something that allows you to use the situation to your advantage – you, Tropicana, have consumers so attached to your old-packaging that you had no choice but to revert back to it, to keep them happy!

However, the truth is much simpler. With the new packaging design Tropicana suffered a $33 million sales drop and without considering properly why this might be the case you risk confusing yourself about the real cause for Tropicana’s sales loss.

You see, while you undoubtedly blame the sales loss on the repackaging, you probably blame it on the wrong elements of the repackaging. And that could prove a fatal mistake.

The New York Times quotes you on this very subject in their 22 February story:

“We underestimated the deep emotional bond” they had with the original packaging, he added. “Those consumers are very important to us, so we responded.”

Among those who underestimated that bond was you yourself, Mr. Campbell. In an interview last month to discuss the new packaging, you said, “The straw and orange have been there for a long time, but people have not necessarily had a huge connection to them.”

Reminded of that , you said: “What we didn’t get was the passion this very loyal small group of consumers have. That wasn’t something that came out in the research.”

From this interview, you seem to make the case that consumer rejection of the new package was due to nostalgia for the old graphic, that well-known straw and orange graphic.

But the truth about your sales loss has little to do with that graphic, and everything to do with shoppers’ ability to find the new packages at shelf. I know this because I’ve researched it and successfully predicted the outcome using a non-biased UK audience.

And really, that’s the point isn’t it?  Researched-based decisions vs. best guesses?

And not just typical focus groups either, but contextually appropriate research, performed with the product packaging placed amidst the competition at shelf.  Research that’s capable of looking past the conscious mind to peep into the subconscious drivers that motivate buying decisions at the store.  Because absent of that kind of insight, a well-spun story might start to fool even the people who created it.

So let’s stop guessing and look at the research.

We tested 3 packs;

1. UK Actual, please note there is no straw in the UK pack
2. USA ‘New’ pack
3. USA early creative route; this was pre-released ahead of the ‘New’ pack launch: We wanted to test if the development process taken by the early route had made the pack less effective.

Each pack was tested in HD, in context using a Think Eye Tracking solution:

Tesco planogram including UK Tropicana on far right:

Tesco planogram including ‘New’ USA Tropicana on far right:

Tesco planogram including early creative route Tropicana on far right:

The heatmap shows the eye tracking results are clear; the UK Tropicana pack has good stand out

The ‘New’ USA pack has significantly less stand out and increases the stand out of Tesco’s own label products.

The early creative route has more stand out than the ‘New’ USA pack.

The purchasing measures predict that the ‘New’ USA pack would see a 13% decline in sales should it be released on the UK market and that the early creative route would have performed better than the ‘New’ pack that was released.

Purchasing measures further predict a 7% increase in sales for Tesco own brand Orange juice if the ‘New’ USA pack were to be released on the UK market.

As you can see, the eye tracking charts show everything you need to know about the new packages. The problem isn’t with nostalgia for the old graphics (the UK pack never have the straw to lose), but with the lack of usability designed into the new packages. Shoppers don’t see new packages and are drawn to Tesco’s own brand products that have some similarities to the UK Tropicana pack.

The facts of the case also support the research: packaged-goods testing experience shows that when shoppers experience confusion at shelf they typically switch from purchasing the category captain to lower priced and store-label brands. Confusion over brand pushes the decision towards price instead of brand preference.  This is what happened to Tropicana, category unit sales remained stable while Tropicana was down 20%.  People didn’t stop buying OJ orange juice, they just stopped paying you a premium to purchase Tropicana, thanks to the confusion created by the new packaging.

So there you have it: one eye tracking study and this could have been avoided. Now you know why P&G NEVER makes a significant change to a flagship product in a major market without eye tracking it first.

So what am I hoping you and your fellow packaged goods CEOs take away from this?

1) Usability isn’t confined to the Internet

On the web, basic usability testing is standard procedure prior to rolling out a redesign.  The new site may be gorgeous and sexy, but if real customers can’t comfortably use and navigate the site, it’s back to the drawing board for the design team.  This makes as much sense offline as on.  Users have to find your product at shelf before they can buy it.

2) Traditional testing is useful, but potentially misleading.

The early creative route performed better that the pack that was released: The pack development methodology used to refine the pack was more damaging than using the gut instinct of  David Arnell! It’s likely that traditional focus groups showed favourable results for the new product/packaging.  While conscious answers and explicit reactions are useful, they are also misleading without access to subconscious responses and implicit reactions. Today’s neuro-marketing research provides that added, balancing insight, and eye tracking studies provide it through a fast, affordable, and practical methodology.

3) Never throw away the visual equity of a well-established brand.

Tropicana is the market leader in premium orange juice and has managed to burn it’s packaging, logo, and graphics into the retinas of millions of breakfast lovers across North America, the UK, and Europe.  People recognized your package and identified it with their daily routines.  Any packaging redesign should have focused on conserving that invaluable brand asset.  When you break people from their routines, they’ll form new ones with new brands.

Yours faithfully,

Robert Stevens

Robert Stevens is director and founder of Think EyeTracking. Contact him at more@thinkeyetracking.com

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